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Contesting Shots Matters!

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The distance at which your team contests shots on the perimeter will directly impact your wins and losses.  10 of the top 25 defensive FG% teams in the NCAA made the tournament this year.  One of those teams is Coach Eric Musselman's Nevada Wolf Pack, who first shared the importance of this analytic with me a few years ago.  It's no secret that a low defensive FG% is necessary to consistently win games, but how can you ensure that you do just that?  

In 2016-17, I began tracking the distance at which we closed out to shooters.  (You can read more from that study here: Contesting Shots Matters & Here's Why.)  Throughout that season, I became convinced there was a correlation between winning, losing, and how well we contested shots.  So in the 2017-18 season as I took a new position at Bethel College in Indiana, I tracked this stat every game to see how it would hold up in a tough league.  

The data below is over the span of our 33 games.  There are two parts to this study that I'd like to share with you: 

  1. The distance at which you contest a shot affects defensive FG%
  2. How often you contest a shot from each distance affects winning and losing.

First, the distance at which you contest a shot affects defensive FG%.  There are three distances that I track: closely contested (0-2 feet), moderately contested (2-4 feet), not contested (4+ feet).  This is slightly different from Coach Musselman, as he tracks four distances.  Here are the overall statistics from this past season:

SEASON (Defensive FG%)

0-2 feet - 20.5% (67-327)

2-4 feet - 39.5% (161-408)

4+ feet - 51.8% (86-166)

Plain and simple, when our players closed out to the ball well, we had an incredible defensive FG%.  When our players did not close out well, we gave up a lot of points.  To conclude the first part of this study, I believe that it is obvious that the tighter a shot is contested, the lower the FG% becomes.  This is why closeouts are extremely important and you should work on them often throughout the year.  Have a plan and be really good at executing a simple closeout.

The second part of the study is the one that impacts winning and losing.  It is that how often you contest a shot from each distance will directly affect your win/loss record.  Here are the statistics from our wins and our losses this season:

WINS (Defensive FG%)

0-2 feet - 18.6% (45-241)

2-4 feet - 39.1% (105-268)

4+ feet - 53.7% (57-106)

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LOSSES (Defensive FG%)

0-2 feet - 25.5% (22-86)

2-4 feet - 40.0% (56-140)

4+ feet - 48.3% (29-60)

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While the defensive FG% remained fairly consistent in both wins and losses, the biggest difference is how often we contest shots from each distance.  In our wins, every 4 out of 10 shots was contested within 0-2 feet, every 4.3 out of 10 shots was contested within 2-4 feet, and every 1.7 out of 10 shots was contested at 4+ feet (See charts above).  Our closely and moderately contested shots were much more balanced, thus our closeouts were more consistent in our wins.

In our losses, only every 2.9 out of 10 shots was contested within 0-2 feet, every 4.9 out of 10 shots was contested within 2-4 feet, and every 2.2 out of 10 shots was contested within 4+ feet (See charts above).  Our consistency and balance in our losses is much more out of sync than in our wins.  Because of this, we struggled to keep points off the board.  The graphs give a visual of the balance in consistency.

So while our defensive FG% remained consistent in wins and losses, the real difference was in our ability to closely contest shots more often.  The margin is not huge, however, it is a crucial detail in the deciding factor of games.  The difference between a win and a loss could be as little as 4-5 shots per game being contested just a foot tighter.

I hope the data in this study will help you realize the importance of closeouts and how the distance and rate in which we contest shots matters.  If you have any questions or comments, I would love for you to reach out so I can talk with you more.  I would also appreciate any feedback or other information to take into consideration for this.  

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Contesting Shots Matters and Here's Why

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Earlier this season I listened to Eric Mussleman, head coach at Nevada, speak to his team on the importance of contesting shots.  He referenced the 2015-16 NBA season to explain why the distance of your closeout on a shot makes all the difference.  He said that defensive FG% was lower as shots were contested closer.  You can hear him talk to his team in the YouTube video at the end of this post.  

Sometimes it's difficult to compare NBA analytics with lower levels because of the type of athlete, the longer 3-point arc, etc., but I thought that this statistic could be applied at any level because of it's nature.  We decided to make it a point of emphasis with our team defense and it has been instrumental in our success.  We play Pack-Line defense, so closeouts are an important aspect of what we do.  Early on in the season we struggled to contest shots, but noticed we gave ourselves a chance when we did.  We kept working on closeouts every day and determined this could be the single most important statistic that we track.

HERE'S WHY

Over our last 13 games we have a record of 10-3.  Our defensive FG% is directly related to our W/L record and has proven to be a key factor in our success.  Here's what I mean:

Overall DFG% last 13 games (infographic below):

0-2 feet contests - 35/137 (25.5%) 

2-4 feet contests - 39/101 (38.2%)

4+ feet contests - 9/12 (75.0%)

DFG% in our 10 wins:

0-2 feet contests - 32/125 (25.6%)

2-4 feet contests - 23/76 (30.3%)

4+ feet contests - 4/7 (57.1%)

DFG% in our 3 losses:

0-2 feet contests - 3/12 (25.0%)

2-4 feet contests - 16/35 (45.7%)

4+ feet contests - 5/5 (100%)

You can see the difference between our wins and losses.  In our wins, we consistently contested shots 0-2 feet more often that any other distance.  We made teams uncomfortable shooting the basketball.  In our losses, we failed to consistently contest shots 0-2 feet and allowed teams to get comfortable shooting unguarded shots.  We have found that contesting/not contesting shots is a huge stat for us. I believe that contesting shots is extremely valuable at the college level.  The more our players see the proof of how contesting shots directly impacts our success, the more seriously we take it.  If you would like to discuss in more detail how we track this or see more examples of its impact, please reach out to me at awingree@bju.edu.  Happy contesting! 

Here is an example of what I use to track contested shots during games.  I will make my best judgment on the distance of the closeout and then go back and watch film to determine the accuracy.  If we have mostly 0-2 feet closeouts, we find that we win most of our games.  If the majority are in the 2-4 or 4+ column, we find that we typically are playing from behind.

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Protect the Paint!

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In the article, Factors to Successful Pack Line Defense, I briefly wrote about characteristics that make our Pack Line defense successful for our program at Bob Jones University.  I would like to take each of those factors and go more in depth with them.

PRESSURE THE BALL!

Contrary to what many believe, pack line defense is an intense & high pressure strategy when executed correctly.  The tone we set in our half court defense begins and ends with the type of pressure we place on the ball handler.  

  1. Hand-On - When teaching on-ball pressure to our team we often use the term "hand-on," referring to the distance between the defender and the ball handler.  We stress the importance of making an offensive player uncomfortable handling the ball while invading his bubble.
  2. Voice Pressure - To apply pressure at the highest level while establishing a factor of intimidation, we urge our players to deploy voice pressure.  Not only does this increase the level of intensity, but it deters a ball handler from performing at his peak level.
  3. Jump Up, Jump Back - We use this terminology when analyzing the options of the offensive player.  Anytime a ball handler picks up his dribble or brings the ball above his head, we will "jump up" or "wall up" by decreasing the amount of space between the two players.  Our hands will be high and we will not let them make an easy pass.  Anytime a ball handler brings the ball low and threatens to drive we "jump back."  When jumping back, we always keep a hand-on the ball and we keep our legs loaded, ready to move.  In both techniques, it is crucial to have active hands and feet.

EXPLODING TO GAPS

As off-ball defenders, one pass away, we will be in the gaps.  The purpose of the gap defender is to build a wall and give his teammate that is pressuring the ball, the trust and confidence he needs to do his job,  

  1. Build a Wall - If you are the offensive player thinking about driving, you should see two defenders on either side of the man guarding you.  The purpose of the wall is to crush any hopes and dreams that the ball handler may have of driving past his man.  If he somehow gets past his man, the gap defenders are right there to shut it down.
  2. Explode to Pack - Many times after our man has the ball and passes it away, players tend to ease up and think their job is finished.  False!  In fact, it has just begun. An immediate instinct that needs to take place is to jump to the ball and back into the pack line.  Our goal should be to take away front cuts and discourage the new ball handler from attempting a drive.  
  3. Trust & Confidence - We stress the importance of communication in our program and there is no better time to communicate than on the defensive side of the floor.  As a gap defender it is your duty to make sure your teammate knows that you have his back.  A simple and effective way to do this is by calling his name, giving him information, and doing so with an urgent and confident tone of voice (Read N.I.T.E. - Keys to Great Communication).  For example, "Ray! I have your gap left! Pressure the ball, Ray! I'm here in your gap left!"  By communicating in this manner, you are giving your teammate the trust and confidence he needs to pressure the ball to the best of his ability!

OBTAINING LEVERAGE ON CLOSEOUTS

Closeouts may be the most important skill involved in pack line defense.  Because of the gap positioning and the "no paint" philosophy, it can be very easy to leave shooters open.  However, we expect our players to give ultimate effort when closing out on shooters.  As you can see from the next main point (do not get beat outside!) we need to obtain leverage, or get the proper angle when we closeout.

  1. Sprint - This one makes sense.  If we need to get out on shooters, you need to sprint!
  2. Chop Your Feet - To maintain balance and the ability to defend the drive, we want our last 3-4 steps to be short and choppy.  By doing this we allow our players to breakdown a player that wants to catch and drive right away.
  3. Throw Hands Up - This is something that many players do not do for some reason.  It is essential that we throw our hands up at the last second to alter a shooter's focus and make him second guess his shot.
  4. Voice Pressure - As in on-ball defense, we want to closeout with voice pressure.  Science has proven that loud noises will ruin a person's focus.
  5. Gain Leverage - We do not want to ever get beat outside, so it is essential that we closeout with our feet and body positioned in a way that will allow us to level off players on the drive (see next point).

DO NOT GET BEAT OUTSIDE!

Every day we work on "leveling off" the ball handler.  Is is not wise to tell your players to "force middle" when playing pack line.  Just because we don't want to get beat outside doesn't mean we are forcing middle.  Instead, it means we need to level off the ball handler to an area on the floor that we want them to go.

  1. Level Off - When a ball handler tries to beat us on a drive to the outside (sideline or baseline) we need to push them to a point on the floor.  On drives from the wing we practice forcing the ball handler to the corner of the floor.  On baseline drives from the corner we plant our foot on the baseline, no closer to the basket than the short corner area.  The ball handler's only option should be to make a move back to the middle where our gap help is, or to pick up his dribble.
  2. Just Do It! - A lot of people ask, "Well what do you do if you do get beat?  How do you rotate?" That is the million dollar question, but the simple answer that we need to ingrain in our players minds is DON'T GET BEAT! LEVEL THEM OFF! JUST DO IT!

Factors to Successful Pack Line Defense

There are many factors that go into playing great pack line defense, but there are three in particular that are of the utmost importance and need to be stressed.  

ELIMINATE EASY TRANSITION BASKETS

We feel very confident in our ability to defend.  We need to make certain that we force our opponents to play vs. our pack line defense in the half court.  Ways we can achieve this are:

  1. Offensive rebound with 3 players and send 2 back to defend the initial break.
  2. On turnovers, every player needs to SPRINT back and recover.
  3. Communication.  We need to use both our VOICES and SIGNALS to let each other know what we are doing (use NITE).
  4. Build a wall and always STOP THE BALL first.
  5. Do not allow passes ahead and do not allow post touches in transition.

I heard a statistic one time (I can't remember where) that 95% of defensive transition mistakes are because of either 1. Poor Floor Balance, 2. Poor Effort, or 3. Poor Communication.

PROTECT THE PAINT

Paint touches are the #1 killer of any pack line defense.  As an offense, we thrive on attacking the paint, so we understand the importance of protecting the paint from a defensive perspective.  Ways we can consistently protect the paint are:

  1. Never give up a baseline drive.  In pack line, there is NO help on the baseline.  We need to make every effort to eliminate the baseline from our opponent.
  2. Pressure the ball handler.  We want to apply as much ball pressure as we can without getting beat.  This will be different for every player and team, but we need to communicate this in our scouting reports.  
  3. Level off the ball handler on drives.  Never let your opponent attack the rim in a straight line.
  4. Build a wall in the gaps.  The ball handler should never see the light if he is thinking about getting into the paint.
  5. Closeout on shooters.  Know your personnel and closeout at the right distance.  Every offensive player is told to "attack the closeout," so we need to make sure we don't allow opponents to get past us.  We have three types of closeouts that we do depending on the skill set of the offensive player.  

CRASH THE GLASS

Lastly, we cannot give up 2nd chance opportunities.  When we play defense we need to make sure we secure every loose ball that comes off the rim.  Here are a couple ways to make this happen:

  1. All FIVE guys need to properly box out and crash the glass.  Be aggressive and have the mindset of getting every ball.
  2. Be in proper gap/help positions.  If we are always in position to defend, we will always be in position to box out and rebound.  

Obviously, there is a lot more that goes into the pack line defense than these factors.  However, I firmly believe that if we can execute and perform the basics, we will be laying a solid foundation to build on.  As with anything coaching related, I am always learning and seeking out wisdom from other coaches in this area.  Many of these principles I have talked about stem from the knowledge of guys like Jim Boone, Tony Bennett, Richie McKay, and Sean Miller.  There are so many great pack line coaches out there, so I would encourage you to seek these guys out.  If you have any questions regarding our pack line defense that we run, please don't hesitate to contact me!  Good luck as you implement this tremendous defense into your program!